The World Cup has proven to be quite the unpredictable tournament on earth. Don't believe it? Here's proof.

Every four years, the world's best football analysts sit down and set the odds. They study form, squad depth, historical performance, and tactical matchups. They build models. They run the numbers.

And every four years, the World Cup makes at least some of those numbers look foolish.

That's not a flaw in the system. It's what makes the World Cup the most compelling sporting event on earth. Let's talk about what an upset actually is, why it happens, and the moments that shocked the world most.

What Is a Football Upset?

An upset is when the team with a significantly lower probability of winning does exactly that.

In football, match odds are set by aggregating huge amounts of data: FIFA rankings, recent form, head-to-head history, squad quality, tactical analysis, injury reports. The resulting probability tells you what the collective wisdom of analysts, models, and market participants believes is most likely.

But "most likely" is not "certain." A team with a 20% chance of winning will still win roughly one in five times. And at the World Cup, where every match is high-stakes, where pressure affects even the best players, and where a single moment can change everything, those upsets happen more often than you'd expect.

Three Times the World Cup Proved the Odds Wrong

South Korea 2–0 Germany, 2018

Germany arrived at the 2018 World Cup as defending champions. They had won it four years earlier in Brazil and were built around one of the deepest squads in the tournament.

South Korea were rated as the fourth-worst team in the field. According to FiveThirtyEight's pre-match model, South Korea had just a 5% probability of winning, with Germany given an 81% chance. South Korea entered as a massive underdog; the market had almost written them off entirely.

South Korea won 2–0. Germany went home in the group stage. It remains one of the most shocking results in World Cup history.

Japan 2–1 Germany, 2022

Four years later, Germany found themselves in a similar position, facing an Asian underdog and carrying the weight of expectation.

The market gave Germany roughly an 80% chance of winning, with Japan considered heavy underdogs. Japan scored twice in the second half. Germany lost. Japan topped the group.

Morocco's Run, 2022

Nobody predicted what Morocco would do at the 2022 World Cup. They entered with less than 1% chance of winning the tournament according to pre-tournament markets.

What followed was historic. Morocco beat Belgium, knocked Spain out on penalties, eliminated Portugal in the quarter-finals, and became the first African and Arab nation to reach a World Cup semi-final. They lost to France, the eventual runners-up, and finished fourth.

Not a single model, analyst, or market had seen it coming.

Why Does This Keep Happening?

The short answer: because odds reflect collective belief, not guaranteed outcomes.

When the market priced Germany at 81% against South Korea, it wasn't saying Germany would definitely win. It was saying that based on everything known at that moment, Germany was the most likely winner. A 5% chance for South Korea still means South Korea wins roughly one in every twenty times that match is played.

The World Cup compresses everything. Single elimination pressure. Players carrying the weight of entire nations. Tactical setups designed specifically to neutralize stronger opponents. One goalkeeper having the game of his life. One set piece that changes momentum.

All of these things exist outside of any model. And at the World Cup, they show up more often than anywhere else.

The market isn't wrong to favor the favorites. But the crowd consistently underestimates just how unpredictable ninety minutes of football can be.

What This Means for World Cup 2026

France. Spain. England. Brazil. The four heaviest favorites in 2026. The teams the market expects to cruise through the group stage.

History suggests that's not a safe assumption.

At Maiga Markets, you can trade any World Cup market on Maiga; any match, any outcome, any angle. But we know upsets happen. And we've prepared for exactly that.

We placed a real hedge on Polymarket against France, Spain, England, and Brazil advancing from the group stage. So if any one of them crashes out early, we split our Polymarket payout with every active Maiga trader, pro-rata.

You don't need to do anything extra to qualify. Just trade any World Cup market on Maiga Markets during the group stage and you're automatically in. If an upset happens, you don't just watch it; you win from it.

That's The Upset campaign.

Read the full campaign details here → https://medium.com/@maigamarkets/you-trade-on-maiga-markets-we-hedge-favorite-upsets-on-polymarket-91af1b60420e

First trade is free. Sign up now → predict.maiga.markets

This content is educational and does not constitute financial or investment advice.