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How Prediction Markets Work: Order Book vs CPMM Explained

How Prediction Markets Work: Order Book vs CPMM Explained

If you've heard of Polymarket or Kalshi, you already know prediction markets let you trade on real-world outcomes. But here's something most beginners don't realise: not all prediction markets work the same way under the hood.

The model a platform uses affects everything — how fast your trade executes, whether it fills at all, and how simple the experience is. There are two main models: Order Book and CPMM. Here's what each one means for you as a trader.

Order Book Model (Polymarket, Kalshi) 

This is how most traditional prediction markets work. Your trade gets matched with another user taking the opposite side — similar to buying stocks on an exchange. 

How it works:

  • You want to take a YES position at $0.60

  • Someone else wants to sell YES at $0.60

  • The platform matches you both and the trade goes through

✅ Great for high-volume markets with lots of traders 
✅ Tight spreads when liquidity is deep 

❌ On smaller or niche markets, you might wait for someone to match you 
❌ Orders can go unfilled if no one takes the other side 
❌ Beginners can find order types (market orders, limit orders) confusing

CPMM Model (Maiga Markets)

CPMM stands for Constant Product Market Maker — the same technology that powers DeFi platforms like Uniswap, applied to prediction markets. 

Instead of matching users, a smart contract pool automatically provides liquidity. You’re always trading against the pool. 

How it works:

  • You want to take a YES position

  • The pool instantly quotes you a price based on current pool ratios

  • You confirm and your trade executes immediately — no waiting, no matching

  • As more people take YES positions, the price automatically adjusts

✅ Instant execution — no waiting, no failed orders 
✅ Always liquid — the pool is always available, even for niche markets 
✅ You always see your exact payout before confirming 
✅ No complex order types — just pick your side and confirm 
❌ On smaller markets, spreads can be slightly wider than a deep order book

Which Model is Better for Beginners?

Order books work well when there's high liquidity and you're comfortable with trading mechanics. But for most everyday traders — especially those new to prediction markets — CPMM wins. No order confusion, no failed trades, no waiting. You see exactly what you'll get before you confirm.

Where Does Maiga Markets Fit?

Maiga Markets runs on CPMM — built specifically for Asia and Southeast Asia, where traders want fast, simple, and beginner-friendly. No orderbook complexity, no waiting for counterparties. Just pick your side, see your payout, and confirm.

Testnet is on its way. Pre-sign up now and get free credits so you can start trading the moment we go live and get ahead of everyone else! 

👉 [Join here]



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Trade odds and predict outcomes with Maiga

Join the community

© 2026 MAIGA MARKETS | ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

MADE WITH

BY HUMANS AT

Trade odds and predict outcomes with Maiga

Join the community

© 2026 MAIGA MARKETS | ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

MADE WITH

BY HUMANS AT